Who will win the Republican Nomination in 2016?

Democrats once again seem to have an edge over Republicans. They’ve selected Ms. Hillary Clinton as their presidential candidate and their election campaign has already begun. But Republicans are left without a leader to lead them out of woods. 

So, who will win the Republican nomination in 2016?

  1. Rand Paul

 

He is a Kentucky senator.

 

Positives:

  • He stands for smaller government
  • He wants to cut foreign aid
  • He wants federal reserve audit
  • He wants to restrict NSA
  • He is young; merely 51 years old

 

Negatives:

  • He definitely will not have many friends in government, federal reserve, and NSA, not to mention foreign countries;
  • He has yet to talk about how he intends to revive the economy, and create jobs
  • He is silent on healthcare
  • He is also silent on the US foreign policy, especially regarding Iraq, Syria, Greece, etc.

Nevertheless, Rand Paul has everything it takes to be the Presidential candidate. Therefore, he is most likely to be the Republican candidate in 2016.

Odds of him becoming the Republican candidate are 9/1

 

  1. Mitt Romney

Republicans lost the elections under his leadership in 2012. Would the party give him a second chance?

Positives:

  • Enough exposure and experience and
  • General unhappiness over Obama’s policies will tilt the balance in his favor

Negatives:

  • Change in the scenario within and outside the country; and
  • Change in electorate composition since the previous elections

Romney, however, remains the best alternative considering the lead Democrats already have over Republicans in the upcoming election campaign. Unconfirmed polls do indicate that if he becomes the Republican candidate, then chances of the party winning the elections will improve considerably. But perhaps, they are comparing him against Obama, and not against Hillary Clinton.

Chances of him being chosen as the Republican candidate for 2016 are high too.

  1. Marco Rubio

At 43, this young and dashing Florida Senator, with Cuban parents, will capture the imagination of many. But he is not without flaws.

Positives:

  • Young and impressive
  • influential in Hispanic community

Negative:

  • Inexperience on national platform,
  • Stand on immigration and foreign policy, and
  • The responses in 2013 debates.

Being a newcomer on national front, it may take a while for people to identify with him. This means party workers may have to put in extra effort to make people aware about him as the future presidential candidate.

Majority of Republican Party members feel that he would be a better Presidential candidate, notwithstanding the grass root pulse. Therefore, chances of him being declared as their candidate are 6/1.

  1. Ted Cruz

He is young, and dashing like Marco Rubio. He has already taken a major stand against Obamacare. Therefore, people, young and old recognize him.

Positives:

  • Young and knowledgeable about constitution
  • Enough exposure during a shut down against Obamacare
  • His conservative approach is liked by many commoners

Negatives

  • Extremely conservative stand may actually drive away many loyal republicans

Chances of him becoming the Republican candidate in upcoming elections are pegged at 18/1.

There are other candidates who could have made it to the list. For example New Jersey’s governor, Chris Christie. Christie, however, is unlikely to be fielded because of “Bridgegate” debacle. But he is popular member of the party. Similarly, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, though excellent in policy making is unlikely to be selected because he is not as popular as Mitt Romney.

Considering all the factors, it is anybody’s guess who will win the Republican nominations in 2016. However, chances of one of the four listed candidates winning the nominations are high.